Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 22.692175 24.992613 27.590353 30.778262 34.638578 39.235678 45.243175
2025-01-26 18.824705 21.770019 25.400659 30.346117 37.157567 46.655249 61.890634
2025-02-02 16.277902 19.557260 23.897231 30.372728 40.461982 57.143546 91.956372
2025-02-09 14.562486 18.067049 22.999635 31.007039 45.142250 73.595683 160.713749
2025-02-16 13.073950 16.618804 21.852231 30.957339 48.927323 93.221649 328.449776
2025-02-23 11.959104 15.520342 21.001936 31.164139 53.567805 123.382024 1308.345695
2025-03-02 11.077649 14.634410 20.312396 31.467487 58.900327 171.727995 NaN
2025-03-09 10.306875 13.812242 19.577404 31.476086 63.814860 245.785998 NaN
2025-03-16 9.740185 13.238987 19.168312 32.051281 71.230412 422.366372 NaN
2025-03-23 9.174033 12.599997 18.536919 31.957217 76.752720 778.162421 NaN
2025-03-30 8.736908 12.127125 18.138268 32.307051 84.870092 2688.536075 NaN
2025-04-06 8.356701 11.710942 17.784433 32.676532 94.192506 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 8.068860 11.454260 17.762191 34.115370 113.973267 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 7.616900 10.874608 17.022955 33.377391 120.287374 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 7.259096 10.436026 16.526887 33.257918 132.866183 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 6.990646 10.136635 16.287426 33.892561 156.938408 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 6.696284 9.766100 15.848419 33.764265 175.517281 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 6.449895 9.465325 15.526552 33.955489 203.619324 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 6.232947 9.202967 15.258756 34.273018 242.363452 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 6.016893 8.926588 14.926609 34.260592 281.861423 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.852263 8.736534 14.772522 34.908943 363.755631 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 5.663759 8.487636 14.451602 34.789872 432.340698 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.512965 8.302364 14.263418 35.186418 575.361646 NaN NaN